Sustainability assessment with dynamic models. first steps in the study of oasis of Comondu, Mexico

Abstract

The agroecosystem of the oasis of Comondú is a rich ecological and cultural landscape closely linked to the presence of water in an arid environment. The permanence of populations, from the Indian period to the present is an example explicit of sustainability. However, this socio-ecological system has become unbalanced by external socioeconomic and environmental conditions. The agroecosystem of the Oasis of Comondu goes to his decline and demise. Our overall objective is to assess the sustainability of this socioecological system with the framework of integrated assessment of sustainability with dynamic models. The aim of this paper is to present this new approach and show the first steps in this research: participative construction of a conceptual model of our system under study. We have identified the main variables and relationships, and historical processes that have influenced its dynamics. The conceptual model resulting from this interaction includes social, economic and productive subsystems. The general dynamic of Comondu system is largely under the control of climatic and socio-economic external variables, such as hurricanes, rainfall, the socio-political relocation, government assistance and the external agricultural intensification.